Intelligence is Free, Now What? Data Systems for, of, and by Agents
Intelligence is Free, Now What? Data Systems for, of, and by Agents
……民有、民治、民享的政府…… ——亚伯拉罕·林肯，《葛底斯堡演说》（1863年） 人工智能的成本正在迅速下降。2023年初，具备GPT-4级别能力的模型每百万个标记的成本约为30美元；而如今，同样的模型成本已低于1美元，一些供应商甚至将成本压低至0.10美元以下。在各类基准测试中，推理价格每年下降了9倍到900倍不等，中位数下降接近50倍。即使是前沿模型，每一代的成本也在大幅下降，开源模型紧随其后。而且至关重要的是，即使“获得诺贝尔奖的天才级别”的智能尚未出现，目前足以满足绝大多数知识工作的智能已经存在，并且每月都在变得更便宜。以这样的速度，我们即将进入几乎免费的智能时代——这种智能足以满足日常的知识工作。 免责声明：本文由加州大学伯克利分校电子工程与计算机科学系（EECS）副教授、EPIC数据实验室联合主任阿迪蒂亚·G·帕拉梅斯瓦兰（Aditya G. Parameswaran）主导撰写，同时还有他的合作者共同参与。本文部分内容是对现状的综述，部分内容是观点阐述，以下讨论的若干研究方向（包括代理推测）……
... government of the people, by the people, for the people ... — Abraham Lincoln, Gettysburg Address (1863) The cost of AI is dropping rapidly. GPT-4-class capabilities cost roughly $30 per million tokens in early 2023; today the same runs under $1 , and some providers are pushing costs below $0.10 . Across benchmarks, inference prices have fallen between 9x and 900x per year , with a median decline near 50x. Even frontier models are getting dramatically cheaper each generation, with open-source models following closely behind. And crucially, even if “Nobel-Prize-winning genius-level” intelligence isn’t here yet, the intelligence that suffices for the vast majority of knowledge work is here today, and getting cheaper by the month. At this rate, we are soon entering the era of virtually free intelligence —the kind that is more than enough for everyday knowledge work. Disclosure: This post is a perspective led by Aditya G. Parameswaran —an Associate Professor of EECS and co-director of the EPIC Data Lab at UC Berkeley—together with his collaborators. It is part landscape survey and part perspective, and several of the research directions discussed below (including agentic speculatio
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来源：Berkeley AI Research · bair.berkeley.edu